RE/MAX Founder thinks 2009 will be like 2008

My broker went to a RE/MAX meeting in Pasadena on December 4, where RE/MAX founder, Dave Liniger, was speaking. He writes,

"Liniger has been, and is, the only Real Estate person that congress has been in touch with for ideas on how to solve the housing crisis. He has given pointed suggestions and is confident that congress will ultimately solve the problem.
 
"Today's Wall Street Journal, front page, has an article "U.S. Eyes Plan To Lift Home Sales" where the government is considering a plan  that could help some people obtain mortgages at 4.5%.  That's great news.
 
"Dave Liniger thinks the market in 2009 will be just like 2008. NAR's opinion is that 2008 was the bottom and 2009 will see an increase in sales."


Source: my broker, RE/MAX of Valencia

Upcoming Santa Clarita Events

Kid's Night Out! (December 12)
Parents can enjoy going to dinner, shopping, or just a night out while your children are participating in supervised fun. Children (ages 4-11) will enjoy food, a movie, crafts, and games inside the community room at Santa Clarita Park, while you have a night to yourself. All City staff are fingerprinted and CPR/First Aid certified. The cost is $18 per child. For more information, please call (661) 284-1465.


Upcoming Events

Tournament of Roses Parade 2009 (January 1)
Pasadena’s 120th annual Tournament of Roses Parade, “Hat’s Off to Entertainment” will be making its way down Colorado Boulevard and we have reserved a seat just for you! For more information, please email trips&tours@santa-clarita.com.

 
Glacier Slide Polar Bear Swim (January 1)
Join the official Santa Clarita Polar Bear Club by taking a chilly plunge in the Aquatic Center’s waterslide pool on New Year’s Day.  For more information, please contact (661) 250-3766.
 
Santa Clarita Valley Film Festival (January 8-11)
The 4th Annual SCV Film Festival provides local filmmakers with opportunities to show their work and to come together with an audience to enjoy quality independent films. For more information, please visit www.scvfilmfestival.com.


Hit the Trail (January 24, 2009)
Celebrate the City of Santa Clarita’s 30 miles of off-street trail system with professional cyclists competing in the upcoming Amgen Tour of California.  For more information, please visit: www.santa-clarita.com/tourofca

 
Amgen Tour of California ( February 22, 2009)
The AMGEN Tour of California brings the drama and excitement of a professional bicycle stage race to the California coast.  Santa Clarita is proud to host the Start-line of Stage 7 from Santa Clarita to Pasadena. For more information, please visit: www.santa-clarita.com/tourofca

 
661Arts
661Arts is an alliance of artists and arts organizations working together to create and to promote an awareness of art and culture in Santa Clarita. This website serves as a point of access for the community to discover visual arts, performing arts, and arts events in the Santa Clarita Valley.  For more information, please visit www.611arts.com.
 
Source: City of Santa Clarita, 12/2

Countrywide to close Lancaster Call Center?

I am hearing that Countrywide/Bank of America will close its Lancaster, California, call-center facility and distribute those positions (may not be ALL those positions) in its other facilities in Simi Valley and Calabasas, among others. I am attempting to confirm.

The Lancaster facility in Northern Los Angeles County (Antelope Valley) is not only one of two nationwide (the other is in Western Texas) that takes inbound customer service calls, but also makes outbound calls to contact homeowners eligible for special refinancing programs. They also have work groups that otherwise assist homeowners restructure or refinance their loans.

Spotlight On...Bagel Boyz

Newly Opened Bagel Shop brings "N.Y. Style Bagels with A West Coast Curve"

As I disclosed in January, I’m pleased to introduce a new column in the monthly newsletter. “Spotlight On...” initially spotlighted on tax changes during the tax season, per request, but now focuses on our neighbors and small businesses.

** Bagel Boyz launches affordable gourmet bagels in Canyon Country **

Treasured friends of mine, Patrick Montgomery, Sr. and his son Patrick Montgomery, Jr. opened their new bagel store across from Costco and 24 Hour Fitness this past weekend. Both have been Santa Clarita residents for years.

Together with over 50 years' experience in bagels and the sandwich business, the father-son duo uses only the finest, freshest ingredients for their bagels which range from the traditional original, onion and blueberry varieties to the eclectic jalapeno pizza bagels. They also offer bagel melts and gocaccia bagel flats.

Drop by on your way to work - it's an easy couple of right turns on your way to the 14 freeway. It's located between Sierra Highway and the 14 on 18580 Via Princessa. Call 661-299-BAGEL (2243) if you get lost.

They do catering, wholesale, and advance orders for pickup. Call ahead and bring bagels to the office - they open at 5:30am weekdays. Their Baker's Dozen (13 bagels) is $7.25 for non-speciality varieties. Great idea for Friday breakfast or that team meeting for your office.

And tell them "Wayne the REALTOR(R)" sent you.

Do you know someone worth Spotlighting? Please send Mr. Chang an email at changhomes@gmail.com. It can be someone with an innovative business idea or product, someone starting their own business, or someone making a difference in school, after-school, work or the community in the Santa Clarita, Antelope or San Fernando Valleys.

Tri-Valley Housing Markets at a Glance: May 1, 2008

SCV Sales Show Renewed Activity
Home and condominium sales during March in the Santa Clarita Valley showed renewed activity on a month-to-month basis even as sales remained down compared to a year ago, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors® reported.

A total of 151 single-family homes closed escrow during March, up 31.3 percent from the total reported in February. March activity was off 42.1 percent from a year ago, but home sales have been gaining momentum since hitting the record low of 99 transactions in January.

Likewise, condominium sales were up 45.9 percent during March compared to February for a total of 54 closed escrows. Condominium activity also has been on a downward trend for some time, but appeared to have bottomed out with the record-low 38 sales posted in November. March condo sales were down 52.2 percent from a year ago, but each month this year has shown increased activity.

"Has the worst passed? Perhaps, although it will still take many months to workout the impact that foreclosures have on the market," said Doreen Chastain-Shine, president of the Association's Santa Clarita Valley Division. "But buyersare out looking at properties, with some of them making offers and others still wondering if now is the time to act."

Pending escrows - a measure of future resale activity - were surprisingly robust.

A total of 307 properties were in escrow at the end of March, up 12.5 percent from a year ago and 24.3 percent higher than this February. Pending escrows have been on the rising since September when they hit the record-low of 155 open escrows.

‘There is no doubt that the quick run-up in prices during the boom years, today's higher inventory of homes for sale, and the presence of foreclosures have a triple impact on sales and prices," said Jim Link, the Association's chief executive officer.

"However, gradually rising sales will reduce the impact on resale prices."

The median price of the 151 single-family homes sold last month was $470,000, down 19 percent from a year ago and off 4.1 percent from February. The low point in this cycle came in January when the median hit $460,000. That compares to the record high of $643,000 which was set in April of 2006.

The condominium median price during March was $275,000, down 28.6 percent from March 2007 and off 1 1.0 percent on a month-to-month basis. The high point for condo prices came in January 2006 when the condo median stood at $397,000.

There were a total of 2,085 properties for sale throughout the Santa Clarita Valley at the end of March.That was up 6.8 percent from 12 months ago, but down 4.4 percent from this February.
At the current pace of sales, the inventory represents a 10.2-month supply - still clearly a buyers' market, yet a considerable reduction from recent months when the inventory was in the mid to high teens.

"Clearly, the market has shifted gears," Chastain-Shine said, "although it will take months before we'll know with certaintythat the market has stabilized, but it certainly looks like it's moving in that direction."

SFV Home Sales Trending Up
Homes are selling in the San Fernando Valley with activity gradually picking up on a month-to- month basis and the number of properties in escrow suggesting the trend will continue through the coming months, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors ® reported.

A total of 41 6 single-family homes changed owners during March, up 16.2 percent from February. While sales were down 46.0 percent from a year ago, activity has been trending up since October with March being the third consecutive month of increased resale activity.

" If this trend continues," said Mary Funk, president of the Association, "it suggests that we may have passed the bottom of this cycle with the worst behind us."

Pending escrows, a measure of future activity, supported that perspective: down from a year ago, but up from month-to-month. There were a total of 853 transactions in escrow at the end of March, a mere 4.6 percent lower than a year ago, yet up 12.4 percent from the February tally.
The Association also reported 151 condominium sales during March. That was down 53.4 percent from March 2007, but up 42 transactions or 38.5 percent from February. March also marked the third consecutive month of increased condo resale activity."After flatlining late last year, the patient most assuredly is showing a pulse," said Jim Link, the Association's chief executive officer. "We're witnessing a slow, steady increase in activity that .seems likely to continue to gain momentum."

Link and Funk agreed that any increase in sales is likely to come at a slower pace than might be expected because of the presence of foreclosures, which take longer to close escrow than a traditional home sale.

Bank-owned properties may present an opportunity for buyers - although prices declines are not nearly as steep as some buyers expect - but Link and Funk said buyers who focus solely on foreclosures may well be missing other opportunities.

"Negotiating with a motivated seller, whose home is priced competitively from the beginning, may yield a superior bargain and a faster, smoother escrow than a foreclosure," Link said. "Plus, the condition of the home in a traditional purchase often is better than in foreclosures, which typically are sold ‘as is,' offering zero opportunity to negotiate for repairs or concessions in price."

Resale prices continue to react to the triple impact of today's larger inventory, the presence of foreclosures, and the simple reality that resale prices rose too quickly during the early years of this decade.

The median price of single-family homes sold during March was $475,000, down 21.0 percent from 12 months ago and off 10.5 percent from this February. With few exceptions, the median has been sliding every month since hitting the record high of $655,000 in June 2007.

The condominium median price stood at $31 5,000, down 21 .1 percent from a year ago and off 4.5 percent from February. It, too, has been sliding for many months, although it hovered for quite some time near the record high of $41 5,000 set in February 2006.

"It will take some time for foreclosure to work their way through the system and only then will prices stabilize," Funk said. "However, with each sale, the negative impact of foreclosures on prices will decrease."

While the inventory of homes is dramatically higher than the less than one-month supply common during the boom market, it is nowhere near the record levels set during the national recession of the early 1990s.

A total 7,193 properties were listed for sale throughout the San Fernando Valley at the end of March. That was up 26.6 percent from a year ago and 1.5 percent higher than February.
At the current pace of sales, the inventory represents a 12.7-month supply - clearly a buyers' market, but well below the 20 plus-month supply seen during the early 90s.

Antelope Valley Numbers, As of 5/1/2008
4511 Active homes on the market at an average price of $268,176, an additional 1394 homes are pending (in escrow) at an average price of $232,672 for a total of 5905 homes on the market and an average price of these homes at $259,794.

Compared to this time last year, the number of listings fell 4% and the average price fell 30%.

Abbreviated Newsletter This Month

I am suspending my articles this month becuase of a personal tragedy I need to address this week.

Rest assured I am safe, but I need to work on my safety and security through the legal process.
Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers, and I assure you my articles will return next month.

Thank you.

FAQ: What is PMI?

PMI is Private Mortgage Insurance. If you have one mortgage loan for the house that is over 80% of its assessed value, most lenders require you to pay PMI to protect them (the lender) in case you default on your loan. It is not required if you make a down payment on a home of at least 20% or if you have a 2nd mortgage loan (often called a “piggyback loan”) so the primary loan is at 80% or less.

I am seeing many of my buyers obtaining loans with PMI because the cost of this insurance is less than the interest on a piggyback loan. This is a drastic change from even a couple months ago. During the runup in housing earlier this decade, paying for PMI was nearly unheard of – it was cheaper to get a piggyback loan.

The cost of PMI can be paid separately as part of closing costs or can be integrated into the mortgage. It may be tax-deductible. FHA and VA loans have other requirements that may result in not having to pay for PMI.


“Wayne is a great REALTOR®!” But he is not an attorney or CPA. Any information and advice he provides are to the best of his ability and understanding, but is not guaranteed. If any topic is of importance to you in your home buying or home selling needs, please consult your attorney or CPA. If you need a referral to a qualified professional, please let Wayne know. He loves serving his community and will be glad to recommend those he has worked with.

Questions answered in this column were asked by my clients, past clients, or prospective buyers and sellers. The questions were answered when they were asked, and they were notified if the question is a candidate for the FAQ column. Questions are chosen based on interest to a wider audience, timeliness to the current market, and possibly other factors. Those whose questions are featured in this column get a gift card to their favorite store, restaurant, mall or movie theatre in the Tri-Valley area if they allow me to publish their name or initials and the city in which they live in this column. You can email your questions for a prompt response to changhomes@gmail.com.