Tri-Valley Housing Market Summary

The following Housing Market Summaries were compiled from Southland Regional and Greater Antelope Valley Associations of REALTORS.

SFV Housing Market Summary
Despite incredible opportunities and more sellers willing to negotiate, sales of existing single-family homes during September hit their lowest monthly total ever while an increase in the inventory erased any lingering doubt that the local residential housing market has shifted in favor of buyers, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Thursday, Oct. 24.
A total of 362 single-family homes closed escrow last month, down 55.5 percent from a year ago when Realtors negotiated 814 sales.

The September total surpassed the prior low of 391 sales set in February 1991 when, unlike today’s relatively strong local economy, the state and the nation were beginning to experience profound economic woes, including the restructuring of the aerospace industry, which led to the loss of thousands of jobs.

While astute buyers are out hunting now for quality properties, many prospective buyers are missing an opportunity, frozen in place by uncertainty or gambling that prices will tumble if a rash of foreclosures materializes, even though in a worst-case scenario the number of bank-owned properties in the San Fernando Valley represents a small portion of a vast market.

Other buyers are locked out, at least temporarily, until help comes in the form of new lending rules from federal lawmakers and the lending industry loosens excessively tight qualifying standards enough so that people with steady jobs, decent credit and a modest downpayment are able to obtain affordable loans.

That was up 13.6 percent from a year ago, but the pace of new listings appears to be slowing – off 17.9 percent.

At the September rate of sales, the inventory represented a 14.4-month supply – the highest inventory to sales number reported since March 1993. The record high of a 23-month supply was set in February 1993, although it hovered in the double-digit range for three years before breaking into the 20s.

Because many of today's sales happen at higher price ranges while entry level buyers have difficulty qualifying for a loan, the median price of single-family homes sold during September increased 4.8 percent compared to a year ago to $623,700.

The median declined 3.3 percent from the figure reported this August, but it is still hovering not far below the record high of $655,000 set in June of this year.

The condominium median price of $390,000 was up 2.6 percent from a year ago and 0.3 percent better than this August. The condo record high of $415,000 was set in February 2006.


SCV Officially in a Buyer’s Market
Any doubt that the residential housing market in the Santa Clarita Valley has completed the transition from a sellers to a buyers' market was erased during September as a total of 105 single-family home sales closed escrow, off 51.8 percent from a year ago for the lowest monthly total on record, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday, Oct. 24.
The September tally was down 43.5 percent from this August, beating the prior record low of 151 sales set in February 1998.

Realtors also guided 52 condominiums sales last month in the Santa Clarita Valley, a decline of 52.3 percent from a year ago and 17.5 percent below this August. It was the second lowest tally on record with only the 51 condo sales reported in February 1998 coming in lower.

The current market cycle may run its course very quickly, which is why Gasinski and Link encourage prospective buyers to open negotiations now while market conditions are so clearly in their favor.

The single-family median price reported in September of $560,000 was down 4.3 percent from a year ago. The median price has been gradually declining since the record high of $643,000 was set in April of 2006.

The Southland Regional Association of Realtors also reported that the condominium median price during September at $370,000, down 3.9 percent from a year ago, but up 2.2 percent from this August. The condo record high of $397,000 came in January 2006.

The inventory hit 2,493 active listings during September, down 1.5 percent from September 2006 and off slightly from the August total. At the current pace of sales, the inventory represents a 15.9-month supply. At the peak of the sellers' market, the inventory frequently hovered at less than a 1-month supply while the supply broke into the 20-month plus supply during the national recession of the early 1990s.

A 5- to 6-month supply is believed to represent a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold a negotiating advantage.

AV listings increased 12%, prices dropped 13% versus last October.
Residential listings increased 12% to 4950 listings, and the list price dropped 13% to just shy of 352k. 174 homes were sold in December with an average sold price of less than 302k. Average market time of 72 days. Currently, there are 5414 active and pending residential listings in the Antelope Valley. The average price of the 4950 active listings was just shy of $352k and 84 days on the market.