Tri-Valley Housing Markets at a Glance

The following Housing Market Summaries were compiled from Southland Regional and Greater Antelope Valley Associations of REALTORS.

San Fernando Valley home sales fall to record low as buyers wait for price declines that may never materialize
Home sales in the San Fernando Valley plunged during October as buyers waited to see what will happen in the home loan market and for resale prices to fall, although there is still no indication that prices will tumble nearly as much as buyers expect.

Single-family home sales throughout the San Fernando Valley during October plunged 54.1 percent compared to the prior year, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday, Nov. 28.

A total of 354 homes changed owners, off 417 sales from the 771 total reported in October 2006. Sales also declined on a month-to-month basis, down 2.2 percent. The 354 sales was the lowest total on record, surpassing the prior low of 362 sales set this September. The third lowest tally of 391 sales came in February 1991.

That compares to the record high of 1,648 home sales, which was set in August 1988. The closest the San Fernando Valley came to that record high during the most recent sellers’ boom market was 1,321 sales in June 2002.

Condominium sales fell 48.6 percent from the prior year with this October’s 128 transactions off 121 sales from the 249 sales of October 2006. Condo sales fell 17.4 percent on a month-to-month basis. The 128 sales was not the lowest on record: that distinction came in February 1993 when 80 condos changed owners. The condo record high of 526 sales was set in August 1988 with the next highest tally of 524 sales appearing in July 2004.

While many buyers think prices should be down dramatically, the reality is that resale prices are holding relatively steady in large measure because even with more properties listed for sale there still are not enough homes throughout the region to satisfy demand.
The median price of single-family homes sold during October fell a modest 3.3 percent to $590,000, down $20,000 from a year ago when the median was $610,000. It was the first time in six months that the median fell below the $600,000 mark. The record high of $655,000 was set in June.

The decline in the condo median price was steeper, falling 7.3 percent from $410,000 a year ago to this October’s median of $380,000. It was the lowest median reported since the record high of $415,000 of February 2006.

Home owners who do not have to sell and purchased prior to the recent peak in the market will weather this cycle. Even if they had to sell now, they still would reap a handsome profit, although not as much as a year ago.

A total of 7,730 properties were listed for sale at the end of October. That was up 13.8 percent from a year ago. Even with the increase, the current inventory is far below the record high of 14,976 active listings set in July 1992 when a recession swept the nation and Southern California’s economy was in the process of a total restructuring.

At the current pace of sales, the inventory represents a 16.0-month supply, the highest total since the early 1990s and an indicator of a pure buyers’ market.

The record high sales-to-inventory tally of 23 months was set in February 1993. A year ago it was 6.1-months. The record low of a 1.0-month sales to inventory total came in March 2004.

Real estate experts say the market is in balance, with neither buyer nor seller holding un upper hand in negotiations, with a 5- to 6-month sales to inventory ratio.

Santa Clarita Valley home sales off by 42%, resale prices down 4%
Single-family home sales during October in the Santa Clarita Valley fell 42.3 percent compared to the prior year, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported Wednesday, Nov. 28.

A total of 116 homes closed escrow, off 85 sales from the 201 transactions of October 2006.

However, homes sales were up 10.5 percent from September following what appears to be a pattern of a slight surge in sales as each year draws to a close and a record low sales total reported in September. It was just three years ago in June 2005 when the record high of 405 sales was reported.

Condominium sales were off 52.3 percent compared to the prior year. Forty-two condos changed owners, down from 88 transactions from a year ago October. The condo total was down 19.2 percent on a month-to-month basis. It was the lowest monthly total on record, beating the prior low of 43 condo sales set in January 1999. The record high of 204 sales was set in April 2003.

Buyer hesitation is based on continued negative reports from the lending industry. Some of the hesitation is unwarranted because the current turmoil hits some segments of the market differently than others.

The median price of single-family homes sold during October throughout the Santa Clarita Valley was $555,000, down 3.5 percent or $20,000 from the prior year. The record high of $643,000 was established in April 2006.

The condominium median price fell 16.2 percent to $310,000, off $60,000 from the $370,000 median of October 2006. The condo record high of $397,000 was set in January 2006.

There were 2,443 active listings throughout the Santa Clarita Valley at the end of October, up 1.6 percent from a year ago, but down 2.0 percent from this September.
At the current pace of sales the inventory represents a 15.5-month supply – a pure buyers’ market as compared to a balanced market that would have a 5- to 6-month supply. During the height of the sellers’ market the inventory frequently hovered below a 1-month supply.

If you need to buy a house, buy it and don’t try to time the market. There are incredible opportunities out there now, a wide selection and attractive financing available if you have what used to be the traditional requirements – a good credit history, documentation and a reasonable downpayment.

AV listings increased 13% from October to November
As of early November, the Antelope Valley had 5702 residential listings up from 4950 listings at the same time in October (an increase of 13%). Other figures usually found in this column, such as average sold price and market time, have not yet been published by the Greater Antelope Valley Association of REALTORS as of my deadline. Look for these figures as soon as they are available at http://changhomesnews.blogspot.com/.