Tri-Valley Housing Markets at a Glance

The following Housing Market Summaries were compiled from Southland Regional and Greater Antelope Valley Associations of REALTORS.

San Fernando Valley’s moderate inventory of homes for sale unlikely to yield deep price discounts

Home sales during November in the San Fernando Valley dropped over 50 percent from a year ago as public reaction to the negative news about problems with sub-prime loans and tighter lending standards continues.

A total of 355 single-family homes and 141 condominiums changed owners in November, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Thursday, Jan. 2.

These sales numbers are reminescent of totals reported during the recession of the mid-1990's. However, unlike that recession, the inventory of homes for sale remains moderate indicating that, locally, prices will soften but not fall dramatically as some news reports imply.

The single-family sales total was 52.9 percent below a year ago yet one sale higher than the figure reported this October, which was a record low.

Condominium sales of 141 units were down 50.4 percent from November 2006, but up 10.2 percent from October. While condo sales are down dramatically from the recent boom, the November total is still well above the record low of 80 sales set in February 1993.

Indeed, while slower activity could make 2007 the worst year on record for local home resales, prices are dropping only moderately and appear unlikely to fall to levels reported during the recession of the 1990s.

The inventory of 7,505 active listings was up 23.2 percent from November 2006. At the current pace of sales, that represents a 15.1 month supply – clearly a buyers’ market, although still below the record high of 23 months set in February 1993.

However, the inventory was 50 percent below the record high of 14,976 active listings set in July 1992. During the 1990s the inventory hovered well above the 10,000 mark for multiple years, a fact that ultimately yielded a 29.2 percent drop in the median price.

The median price of single-family homes sold last month was $557,500, down $37,500 from the $595,00 median of November 2006 for a drop of 6.3 percent.

The condo median price at the end of November was $375,000, a decline of 4.1 percent from November 2006. The condo median is close to the record high of $415,000 set in February 2006.


Home sales slowdown in the Santa Clarita Valley appears to be easing

Despite ongoing national reports about slow home sales and troubles in the home loan industry, a total of 111 single-family homes and 38 condominiums sold during November throughout the Santa Clarita Valley, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported on Thursday, Jan. 2.

The single-family resale total was down 39.3 percent from a year ago, a decline that was below the 50 percent or higher drops reported in other Southern California communities, suggesting that local buyers recognize the opportunities that exist in today’s market.

The 38 condos that sold were down 56.8 percent from a year ago when the total was 88 sales. The November tally was the lowest condo sales total on record, beating the prior low of 42 sales set in October 2007.

The median price of single-family homes sold during November was $522,500, down 9.9 percent from a year ago. The median has been falling slowly since the record high of $643,000 was set in April of 2006. After nine years of increases in the annual median price, 2007 is likely to post a decline of about 5 percent.

The condominium median price reported during November of $316,000 was down 13.4 percent from November 2006, but increased 1.9 percent from the median reported in October. The condo record high of $397,000 was set in January 2006.

A total of 2, 341 properties were listed for sale throughout the Santa Clarita Valley at the end of November, an increase of 7.2 percent from a year ago, but down 4.2 percent from this October, which suggests that the pace of listings is slowing.

At the current rate of sales, the active inventory represents a 16-month supply – a clear indicator of a buyers’ market and well above the desired 5- to 6-month inventory that would represent a balanced market.

While statistics do not exist to prove the point, it is believed that today’s inventory is far less than the totals reported in the early 1990s when the nation and the state were going through a deep economic recession.


Fewer AV Homes listed versus November 2007

Currently there are 4783 homes actively listed in the Antelope Valley, according to the Greater Antelope Valley Association of REALTORS, and 574 pending homes, for a total of 5357 homes on the market.

This is a drop of 6% from early November figures, when the Antelope Valley had 5702 total residential listings.